SixFourThree

We can't quite figure out Manny's hair, but we do try to figure out how he can get L.A. back to the playoffs.

It doesn’t take a baseball die-hard or a writer from Baseball Prospectus to tell you that Albert Pujols’ success at the plate is going to exponentially help the postseason hopes of the St. Louis Cardinals. Or that C.C. Sabathia is going to need to perform at his best in order for the New York Yankees to hold their lead in the American League East.

These are what you’d call Obvious Observations. There as easy to notice as Charlie Manuel at a Green Day concert.

But by digging a little deeper, you learn that the Phillies need to shore up their middle relief in order to stay atop the National League race, and that the Giants need to balance out their home/road performance if they want to maintain their playoff hopes.

These are what you’d call Hidden Hunches. You have to look closely to see them, like trying to find reason or purpose in Manny’s dreads.

We’ll start in the NL today with those teams that would currently be in the playoffs, and move over to the lesser league next week, so check back for more!

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

Hidden Hunch — The Phillies have a reliable offense with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino leading the way. But close games – those often played in the postseason – usually are low-scoring affairs when teams need strong bullpen performances. Bullpen stalwarts Jack Taschner, Rodrigo Lopez and Chad Durbin have all posted ERAs above 4.40 this season and have combined for more than 100 IP. Closer Brad Lidge’s struggles haven’t alleviated the Phils’ problems, either.

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Hidden Hunch — Back of the rotation consistency has been the Cardinals’ only Achilles Heel this season. Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer (both currently on the DL) have been less than savory, but thanks to run support have combined for a 12-17 record; not a great tally. So all eyes are going to be on new addition John Smoltz, as the Cardinals make their playoff run. Were his nine strikeouts last week against the Padres for real, or was it simply a product of a good night against a glorified Triple-A team?

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Hidden Hunch — Two Dodgers need to step up as September approaches: Clayton Kershaw and Manny Ramirez. Kershaw is going to have to make sure his starts turn into wins, especially given Chad Billingsley’s recent struggles. But more importantly, Ramirez needs to earn his keep as the Dodgers’ offensive catalyst. He only has four homers and 16 RBI in 130 post-all-star break at-bats. Even more troubling is his 36 strikeouts over that span.

NL Wild Card

Colorado Rockies

Hidden Hunch — Whatever the Rockies are doing to keep Huston Street comfortable, they just need to keep it up. A once-volatile closer with Oakland, Street has settled down since finding a hope and a permanent closer’s job in Colorado. He’s 33-for-34 in save chances this season and has converted all his save opportunities since the all-star break. If he can maintain his poise and confidence on the mound this September, the Rockies should have no trouble digging deep and making another Rocktober run.

–Kaplowitz